*** Powerful Category 5 Hurricane Irma is moving further away from the local islands. On Wednesday at 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Irma was located just north of Puerto Rico, near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 66.8 West. Irma is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. As Irma is moving further away from the islands now, the associated winds will pose no further threat to the islands.
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Category 1 Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 47.5 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next two days. Jose is expected to proceed in a northwesterly direction, passing northeast of, or just over the northeastern Leeward Islands on Saturday.
KNMI: Tropical cyclone bulletin 5 – Jose
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 5
Date: Friday September 08, 2017 Time: 04:19 local time
A Tropical Storm Watch stays in effect for Saba and St Eustatius for category 3 Hurricane Jose. At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 55.3 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Jose is expected to be near the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday. On Sunday Jose is expected to move further NNW-wards.
Effect on local conditions
Probabilities for tropical storm and hurricane force winds have not changed with respect to the previous forecast. On Saturday and early Sunday there is a 30-40% risk of tropical-storm force winds (exceeding 8 Bft, 34 kt (>62 km/h)), and a neglible risk (less than 5%) of hurricane force winds (exceeding12 Bft, 64 kt (>120 km/h)), associated with Hurricane Jose, affecting Saba and St Eustatius, Winds are expected to turn to northeast at Saturday morning and turn to northwest later on Saturday. On Sunday winds will turn through southwest to a southerly direction.
On Saturday and Sunday, consensus forecast of wave height is 7-10 ft with a 30% risk of 10 to 15 ft associated with Hurricane Jose. Main attribution of the waves is due to swell. Swell is coming from the northeast, later on Sunday possibly from a northwesterly direction.
On Saturday and Sunday forecast of precipitation is 1 inch of rain with a small (10-30%) risk for around 2 to 4 inches of rain due to Hurricane Jose.
Local authorities and residents of Saba and St. Eustatius are advised to continue monitoring the further progress of this weather system and to take all necessary measures to safeguard life and property.
Center’s latest and forecast positions:
Positions for Hurricane JOSE:
Fri Sep 08 05:00 AST (09:00 UTC) 16.0N 55.3W Cat 3 Hurricane 834 km (518 miles) ESE of St Eustatius
Fri Sep 08 14:00 AST (18:00 UTC) 16.6N 57.3W Cat 3 Hurricane 612 km (380 miles) E of St Eustatius
Sat Sep 09 02:00 AST (06:00 UTC) 17.3N 59.6W Cat 3 Hurricane 359 km (223 miles) E of St Eustatius
Sat Sep 09 14:00 AST (18:00 UTC) 18.5N 61.6W Cat 3 Hurricane 185 km (115 miles) NE of St Eustatius
Sun Sep 10 02:00 AST (06:00 UTC) 20.0N 63.6W Cat 2 Hurricane 288 km (179 miles) NNW of St Eustatius
Mon Sep 11 02:00 AST (06:00 UTC) 23.5N 67.,2W Cat 2 Hurricane 801 km (498 miles) WNW of St Eustatius
Tue Sep 12 02:00 AST (06:00 UTC) 26.4N 68.6W Cat 1 Hurricane 1148 km (714 miles) NNW of St Eustatius
Wed Sep 13 02:00 AST (06:00 UTC) 27.9N 67.9W Cat 1 Hurricane 1263 km (785 miles) NNW of St Eustatius
TROPICAL STORM WATCH: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63) knots are expected in specified areas in 48 hours of less.
Next bulletin: Friday September 08, 2017, 10:19 local time